Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient win on 2025-11-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82b6f163c40bbf5efc923b1c16752f677510b607b75ab80876fd695e474be6c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 40c | 20,510$8,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,305.8 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 19c | 20,419$3,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,933.28 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked No | 60c | 11,980$7,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,187.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 60c | 10,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -80%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 15c | 6,597$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.85 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked No | 62c | 2,649$1,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.55 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 60c | 2,400$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 16c | 1,471$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.64 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed No | 35c | 1,430$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 39c | 1,033$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.33 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 40c | 999.6$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.76 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 8c | 974.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 39c | 930.4$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.06 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 39c | 681.98$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.11 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 38c | 656.65$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.41 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 11c | 574$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…62ccbacked Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 60c | 459.53$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.72 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed No | 11c | 422.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 40c | 400.5$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 39c | 363.32$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.37 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 41c | 292.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.68 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 77c | 232.93$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 40c | 232.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 39c | 197.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 15c | 173$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 45c | 150$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 13c | 122.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…4347backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +17.9wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed No | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 66c | 74.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 41c | 72.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 41c | 67.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 150 | 71.3%107 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 38c | 57.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 39c | 54.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 57c | 48.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…6654backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 61c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 61c | 16.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient win on 2025-11-30?this page
- Will FC Lorient vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?No won
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.