Tennis · resolved market
ITF Luan: Rira Kosaka vs Liuyan An
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x724b93b81b4155bfc78845fede962ed7ab1188341bf290a8d9f70ee83f1fb262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rira Kosakaof Rira Kosaka, Liuyan An
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Rira Kosaka | 75c | 2,768$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.56 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Liuyan An | 26c | 2,686$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.41 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Liuyan An | 25c | 392.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rira Kosaka | 69c | 301.89$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.64 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Rira Kosaka | 67c | 279.44$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Liuyan An | 27c | 143.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Liuyan An | 36c | 140.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Liuyan An | 33c | 140.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Rira Kosaka | 69c | 139.65$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Liuyan An | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 314 | 43.6%137 W · 177 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Rira Kosaka | 65c | 97.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 397 | 51.4%204 W · 193 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe2…697abacked Liuyan An | 39c | 72.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Rira Kosaka | 73c | 56.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Rira Kosaka | 61c | 53.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Liuyan An | 33c | 47.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Liuyan An | 26c | 40.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 349 | 57.9%202 W · 147 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Liuyan An | 38c | 36.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Liuyan An | 33c | 32.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Rira Kosaka | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…b543backed Rira Kosaka | 67c | 29.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…9c0cbacked Rira Kosaka | 69c | 27.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Rira Kosaka | 63c | 26.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…371dbacked Rira Kosaka | 72c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2240…c93ebacked Rira Kosaka | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Rira Kosaka | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 324 | 52.5%170 W · 154 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Rira Kosaka | 67c | 17.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Rira Kosaka | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rira Kosaka | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.