Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x726e77b1d4543dcc4b8036e4167f141257f488ac4d06e88cfb1482cd7b219e82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5068…32bfbacked Yes | 0c | 14,351$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 594.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 508.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 466.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 10c | 381.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 11c | 340.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 23c | 300.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 8c | 297.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 7c | 292.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 9c | 277.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…1fe9backed Yes | 21c | 259.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 254.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 23c | 223.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 9c | 206.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3929…afd2backed No | 74c | 202.28$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 10c | 190.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed Yes | 10c | 181.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 7c | 176.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 167.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 12c | 162.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 151.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 134.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 133.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9074…ea32backed Yes | 42c | 118.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 76c | 116.21$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…d2f9backed Yes | 27c | 108.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 10c | 108.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 10c | 108.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 17c | 99.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 11c | 93.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 74c | 80.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 77.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 68c | 73.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 26c | 69.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…7127backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 17c | 60.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…17b5backed Yes | 35c | 56.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 39.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 37.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 73c | 29.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 75c | 15.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.