Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77d2fe1f31ff5081bb0c2c15ebaae536c6a1b410f93143a619b73758ee299a1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 0c | 18,734$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 16c | 781.06$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.39 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 51c | 617.8$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.99 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 33c | 592.42$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.48 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 515.15$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 17c | 435.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.75 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 360.56$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 54c | 328.66$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 301$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 271.81$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9074…ea32backed Yes | 79c | 256.6$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 32c | 245.22$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.55 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 239.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 202.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 188.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 187.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 74c | 186.2$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 181.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 30c | 167.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 23c | 166.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 30c | 152.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.73 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 56c | 135.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 133.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 77c | 132.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 125.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 31c | 124.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.77 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 122.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 22c | 114.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 40c | 113.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 33c | 108.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 105.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 43c | 104.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 100.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 55c | 99.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 42c | 98.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 63c | 97.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 96.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 34c | 94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 93.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 31c | 90.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 18c | 86.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 13c | 85.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 34c | 82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…b480backed No | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 63c | 79.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 53c | 71.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…d2f9backed Yes | 50c | 71.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 45c | 68.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 74c | 67.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 67.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 60c | 65.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 37c | 63.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 32c | 61.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 69c | 60.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 57.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 63c | 56.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 53c | 53.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 57c | 52.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 40c | 51.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 22c | 50.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…32bfbacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 41c | 47.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 46.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 30c | 46.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 47c | 44.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 62c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 56c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 37c | 40.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 40c | 39.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 33c | 37.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 34c | 37.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 36.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 36.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 51c | 36.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 36.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 36c | 32.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 32.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 32c | 31.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 57c | 31.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 69c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 37c | 28.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 27.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 27.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 53c | 26.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 25.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.