Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x117622a544e8fe8fbea2316530d12bbfa9217f2d592777cb9b1bc847ac3cd68b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 1,387$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 806.11$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.79 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 722.3$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 51c | 391.76$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.35 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 343.14$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 338.68$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 29c | 333.49$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 301$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 64c | 286.77$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.87 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 26c | 284.71$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 51c | 258.64$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 46c | 202.88$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 200.18$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 198$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 33c | 189.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 11c | 175.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 171.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 51c | 171.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 37c | 163.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 75c | 146.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 143.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 143$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 53c | 131$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 127.39$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 54c | 111.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 42c | 109.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 53c | 104$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 30c | 100.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 43c | 96.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 42c | 96.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 39c | 94.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 45c | 94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 92.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…a3a9backed No | 45c | 89.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 54c | 88.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 52c | 87.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 77c | 86.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 84.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 35c | 77.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 76.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 51c | 76.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 72.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 33c | 70.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 67.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 42c | 66.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 64.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 63.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 62c | 62.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 41c | 60.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 53c | 58.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 58.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 37c | 57.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 53c | 56.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 41c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 47c | 53.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed No | 45c | 52.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 51.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 75c | 51.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes | 69c | 50.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 72c | 50.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…845bbacked Yes | 77c | 50.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 22c | 47.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 50c | 47.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 45.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 45.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed No | 67c | 44.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 41c | 44.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 62c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 57c | 43.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 75c | 42.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 49c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 52c | 41.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0296…ad01backed No | 74c | 40.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb453…ec95backed No | 66c | 40.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 46c | 37.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 47c | 35.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 53c | 34.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 32.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 30.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.