Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7283e563fb2744acd57e859c6ac018b3cb889a9d41c06bd0c693ff2e3c1be9b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 49c | 480.97$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.9 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 323.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 31c | 200.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.99 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 74c | 180.41$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 167.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 137.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 123.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 117.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.37 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 71c | 116.12$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 97.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 31c | 94.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 76c | 91.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 64c | 84.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 15c | 72.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 51.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…665fbacked Yes | 43c | 46.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…c1dbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 46.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…5c16backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 62c | 39.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 38c | 33.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 31.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…6223backed No | 66c | 29.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 66c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5002…23dbbacked No | 63c | 19.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 72c | 17.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 67c | 17.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…75a7backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.