Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa596cc0af2298ea2f34f8ccbb7394f51eaf012159181b3b5d702ec9721c81055
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 58c | 316.97$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.45 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 72c | 279.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 54c | 213.57$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 34c | 208.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 64c | 207.49$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 34c | 205.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.31 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 80c | 188.68$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.94 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 67c | 180.39$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2a…342abacked Yes | 56c | 160.51$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 52c | 146.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 49c | 136.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 97.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 51c | 92.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 91.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 49c | 84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…1fb9backed Yes | 63c | 83.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 83.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…d509backed No | 37c | 77.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +9.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 74.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 31c | 74.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 68.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 79c | 66.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d7…9600backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 43c | 59.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 48c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 55c | 39.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6e…badfbacked No | 66c | 38.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 54c | 38.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 55c | 33.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d74fbacked Yes | 45c | 33.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 56c | 33.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 35c | 33.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa728…2dc8backed Yes | 79c | 33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 37c | 32.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd0…df3fbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x120f…c8f8backed Yes | 42c | 27.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…d382backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 61c | 19.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 66c | 18.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 64c | 17.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on February 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.