Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73029d20bff6565cf5d7d271af01e8d1faa696fd1558b68e0b1affcf37b9a625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 128.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 71c | 126.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 17c | 116.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 31c | 107.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 67c | 107.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 67c | 103.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 33c | 100.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 98.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 75.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 35c | 71.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed Yes | 67c | 67.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…80c0backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 42c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d9…ee1ebacked Yes | 25c | 47.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73e6…beb0backed No | 46c | 43.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…eea4backed Yes | 70c | 38.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 78c | 34.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 55c | 32.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked Yes | 78c | 31.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 72c | 29.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 38c | 27.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 25.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 68c | 17.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f1…48a0backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 78c | 13.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.