Champions League · resolved market
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x731b4a2bb71a07e7fcc907063c86788defc5612b766a801108d339628d0d4484
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0301…0931backed Yes | 23c | 10,001$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a1…5e70backed No | 77c | 9,998$7,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,299.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 77c | 753.72$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.82 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…d4c7backed Yes | 5c | 615.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 562.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 4c | 533.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 24%23 W · 73 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 77c | 399.98$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 24c | 289$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 73c | 265$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 200.89$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed No | 77c | 147$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f0…f19fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c5…7d0ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 24c | 99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 256 | 59.8%153 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5362…d3fbbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Yes | 23c | 82.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 79c | 23.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c7…ebbabacked No | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c4…699bbacked No | 76c | 16.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle United FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?this page
- Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-10-21?Yes won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-10-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.