CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs illwill - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73679a1f528df19549c9f28a851bed45b74a4b414b8a91fa9d91abc37b73d050
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof ECSTATIC, illwill
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked illwill | 48c | 7,793$3,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,044.84 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed ECSTATIC | 58c | 4,212$2,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,443.06 | 199 | 49.7%99 W · 100 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked ECSTATIC | 76c | 1,610$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.41 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked illwill | 40c | 878.26$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.68 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed illwill | 49c | 497.76$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.35 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill | 42c | 469.4$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.25 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked ECSTATIC | 54c | 467.03$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.84 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…00b3backed illwill | 48c | 429.94$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed ECSTATIC | 33c | 158.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed ECSTATIC | 28c | 141.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c1…275ebacked illwill | 45c | 104.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed illwill | 49c | 103.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…fd67backed ECSTATIC | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked ECSTATIC | 25c | 92.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed ECSTATIC | 51c | 84.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 273 | 48.4%132 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed illwill | 35c | 75.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 291 | 28.5%83 W · 208 L | -30.2wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74e2…89a5backed illwill | 52c | 67.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…2fc7backed ECSTATIC | 57c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 434 | 42.2%183 W · 251 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed illwill | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…8f40backed illwill | 57c | 30.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…4dccbacked illwill | 45c | 26.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f2…0546backed illwill | 47c | 24.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed ECSTATIC | 52c | 24.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs illwill - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Playoffsillwill won
- Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs illwill - Map 2 WinnerECSTATIC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.