Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x738664b3e111593b2560921cc5f7f4158b2873f3353db4e22620b2bf23904b1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Top Esportsof Invictus Gaming, Top Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Invictus Gaming | 33c | 433.19$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.95 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Invictus Gaming | 34c | 317.74$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.74 | 1,035 | 47.2%489 W · 546 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Top Esports | 65c | 305$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…1bd5backed Top Esports | 67c | 204.48$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Top Esports | 65c | 165$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 56cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Top Esports | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Top Esports | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Top Esports | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 327 | 52.9%173 W · 154 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Invictus Gaming | 33c | 126.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 1,156 | 49.1%568 W · 588 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Top Esports | 65c | 111$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c1…928cbacked Top Esports | 67c | 94.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Top Esports | 64c | 84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Invictus Gaming | 35c | 82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Top Esports | 65c | 69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Invictus Gaming | 35c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Invictus Gaming | 35c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Top Esports | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Top Esports | 65c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Invictus Gaming | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Top Esports | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Invictus Gaming | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Invictus Gaming | 36c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Invictus Gaming | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Invictus Gaming | 35c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf583…7b6bbacked Invictus Gaming | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…ae54backed Invictus Gaming | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…ad50backed Invictus Gaming | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Invictus Gaming | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed Invictus Gaming | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Invictus Gaming | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Invictus Gaming | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.45per pick | 56cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c20…6fd4backed Top Esports | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -12.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…6d13backed Invictus Gaming | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Top Esports | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Top Esports | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group AscendInvictus Gaming won
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 WinnerTop Esports won
- LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 WinnerInvictus Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.