Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x739d3d8cb98af234dbc5dc6dde8e87c995a83b137fb588a53c8f806bc48875bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bartunkovaof Sabalenka, Bartunkova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Sabalenka | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.97 | 348 | 57.2%199 W · 149 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Bartunkova | 29c | 3,000$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.15 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Sabalenka | 70c | 2,735$1,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,914.38 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Bartunkova | 52c | 1,570$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.63 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Bartunkova | 31c | 1,391$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.14 | 325 | 54.2%176 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Bartunkova | 51c | 1,100$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Bartunkova | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…6dc8backed Sabalenka | 71c | 987.18$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Bartunkova | 30c | 600$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.01 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Bartunkova | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Bartunkova | 52c | 423.75$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.4 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Bartunkova | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 316 | 56.3%178 W · 138 L | +19.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Sabalenka | 71c | 323.94$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Sabalenka | 68c | 272.13$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.05 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…5824backed Sabalenka | 13c | 228.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Bartunkova | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Sabalenka | 71c | 185.92$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…049abacked Bartunkova | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Bartunkova | 52c | 148.08$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…0436backed Sabalenka | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Sabalenka | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…02b0backed Sabalenka | 11c | 118.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Bartunkova | 52c | 115$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Bartunkova | 50c | 80.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Bartunkova | 52c | 78.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Bartunkova | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Bartunkova | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c3…fd98backed Sabalenka | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Sabalenka | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Sabalenka | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 307 | 55%169 W · 138 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…828fbacked Sabalenka | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…48f7backed Sabalenka | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…ba30backed Sabalenka | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Sabalenka | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Sabalenka | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 285 | 57.9%165 W · 120 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Sabalenka | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc06b…76ddbacked Sabalenka | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2e…9d98backed Sabalenka | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Sabalenka | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Sabalenka | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Bartunkova | 52c | 50.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Sabalenka | 71c | 50.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bartunkova | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…ca3ebacked Sabalenka | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Sabalenka | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Sabalenka | 50c | 41.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Sabalenka | 68c | 39.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Bartunkova | 31c | 34.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Sabalenka | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Bartunkova | 72c | 24.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…3403backed Sabalenka | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5)this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Nikola Bartunkova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola BartunkovaAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Bartunkova: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Bartunkova: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs BartunkovaBartunkova won
- Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs BartunkovaSabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.