Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x739d6a8fe85ed84fe97fe91190ab8f63fb05c8b92139402fb32fd1c4c98aa4f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Werder Bremenof Hamburger SV, Werder Bremen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Hamburger SV | 22c | 13,079$2,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,847.06 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Werder Bremen | 79c | 6,395$5,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.33 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Werder Bremen | 77c | 1,748$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.08 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Hamburger SV | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfce…b388backed Werder Bremen | 79c | 1,258$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Hamburger SV | 21c | 935$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.73 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Werder Bremen | 79c | 898$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.28 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Hamburger SV | 19c | 426.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hamburger SV | 21c | 206.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Hamburger SV | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Hamburger SV | 20c | 133.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…0868backed Werder Bremen | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Hamburger SV | 29c | 105.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Werder Bremen | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Werder Bremen | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Werder Bremen | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Werder Bremen | 79c | 52.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Werder Bremen | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.41per pick | 51cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Werder Bremen | 79c | 19.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Werder Bremen | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…767fbacked Werder Bremen | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Werder Bremen | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)this page
- Hamburger SV vs. Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.