Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc565ef3de6907a23c01b4c6f090c94aef4826cd03ca436dac0524bc81f5f3fa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 32c | 7,591$2,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,188.71 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 7,080$4,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,661.3 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Over | 58c | 1,537$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Under | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…85f3backed Under | 46c | 817.39$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 43c | 755.56$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.52 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 70c | 685.22$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.08 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 42c | 625.61$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.94 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 35c | 553.26$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.5 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 45c | 499.98$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.99 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b0a5backed Over | 30c | 313.33$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…3ed6backed Over | 59c | 289.1$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.53 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Under | 71c | 243$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.53 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Over | 31c | 225.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 56c | 221.43$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 42c | 190$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Over | 31c | 182.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.64 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…d605backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 45c | 166.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Over | 38c | 160.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.49 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 53c | 120$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 115.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Over | 31c | 112.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 55c | 111.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 63c | 97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 31c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…1754backed Under | 48c | 82.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 58c | 63.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x119f…2c27backed Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 38c | 59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Under | 70c | 47.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63ba…12d4backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 63c | 40.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 55c | 38.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Over | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 43c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 53c | 36.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 126 | 57.9%73 W · 53 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Under | 45c | 36.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 57c | 35.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64af…f3acbacked Under | 46c | 28.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…f826backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 57c | 26.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 24.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Under | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a6…0f3abacked Over | 55c | 22.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…9b3ebacked Over | 56c | 20.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 67c | 18.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Over | 58c | 17.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5this page
- Hamburger SV vs. Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)Werder Bremen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.