Mls · resolved market
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7421f16878c26613edf5edb43d5b9f9d9d3dd2f7c9a39190e5ab6914f014cd62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,256 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 62c | 3,840$2,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,365.36 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 2,505$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.49 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 29c | 986$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.06 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 41c | 696.67$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.37 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 71c | 588.4$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.76 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 41c | 585$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.23 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 38c | 467.12$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.38 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 45c | 385.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.79 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 65c | 367$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.74 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 326.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.7 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…4da1backed Yes | 29c | 258.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.62 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 27c | 184.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.62 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 50c | 181.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.46 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed No | 10c | 149.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Yes | 28c | 141$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 31c | 134.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 25c | 127.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80a1…68bfbacked Yes | 51c | 127.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 27c | 125$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Yes | 37c | 106.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 72c | 99.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 72c | 94.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 66c | 91.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 64c | 71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed No | 64c | 71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 32c | 70.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 64c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba6…2a7ebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 40c | 31.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1508…5760backed No | 65c | 25.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 44c | 23.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 67c | 15.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-03-22?No won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-03-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.