Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7434309a59f31446183a07d643a4da615e9e6fdf88a8c82c2c78f27b96dcedd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed Yes | 19c | 745$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.54 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa865…a2c3backed No | 60c | 455$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 38c | 194.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…3cddbacked Yes | 40c | 170$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…34c2backed Yes | 40c | 165$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…9a39backed Yes | 40c | 165$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 38c | 156.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 69c | 145.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8c…a4ecbacked No | 60c | 145$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 48c | 143.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 54c | 123.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…90fdbacked No | 60c | 115$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c44…3d64backed No | 66c | 94.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 56c | 89.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 71.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…036fbacked Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84aa…74ebbacked Yes | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…a73abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…8af6backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…34acbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9614…8597backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf31…b379backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 33c | 37.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c00…b206backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.