Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Jangjun Kim
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x743d2ad6a44a55825a4738a57799b6a53a154d7992a89fa8505c70a5b4f8869e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jangjun Kimof Naoya Honda, Jangjun Kim
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70bc…4e16backed Naoya Honda | 20c | 4,042$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.94 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Jangjun Kim | 80c | 1,961$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.94 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked Naoya Honda | 18c | 550$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.4 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked Naoya Honda | 17c | 225$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 275 | 30.2%83 W · 192 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Naoya Honda | 10c | 185.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Jangjun Kim | 66c | 164.86$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 1,187 | 62.8%746 W · 441 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Naoya Honda | 35c | 160.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Naoya Honda | 19c | 158.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 568 | 53.9%306 W · 262 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Jangjun Kim | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Naoya Honda | 8c | 150.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Jangjun Kim | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Naoya Honda | 34c | 107.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Jangjun Kim | 80c | 106.6$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 911 | 63.9%582 W · 329 L | +66.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Naoya Honda | 60c | 83.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 581 | 45.8%266 W · 315 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…dad6backed Naoya Honda | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Jangjun Kim | 65c | 54.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Naoya Honda | 35c | 32.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Naoya Honda | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 516 | 44.8%231 W · 285 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Jangjun Kim | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Naoya Honda | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81dd…bd8fbacked Naoya Honda | 38c | 27.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.