TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Iowa State Cyclonesof Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas State Wildcats
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,257

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,868 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Kansas State Wildcats45c7,614$3,414 inLost-$3,414.3912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Iowa State Cyclones55c5,065$2,786 inWon+$2,279.251,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Iowa State Cyclones55c4,518$2,500 inWon+$2,017.7335151.9%182 W · 169 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Kansas State Wildcats44c2,767$1,230 inLost-$1,230.0189645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Iowa State Cyclones55c2,000$1,101 inWon+$898.982,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Kansas State Wildcats45c1,144$515 inLost-$514.6697447.9%467 W · 507 L-2.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Kansas State Wildcats46c399.99$184 inLost-$183.931,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Iowa State Cyclones53c391.39$207 inWon+$183.951,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ce1…b62cbacked Iowa State Cyclones59c339.04$200 inWon+$139.047955.7%44 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Kansas State Wildcats49c200$98 inLost-$981,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf484…0e02backed Kansas State Wildcats47c200$94 inLost-$94475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+44.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Kansas State Wildcats7c163$11 inLost-$11.417451.4%38 W · 36 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+39.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Iowa State Cyclones54c111.11$60 inWon+$51.114,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe42d…62febacked Kansas State Wildcats52c80.77$42 inLost-$421747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.