Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas State Wildcats: O/U 153.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7790d9459fb4c561e77a16818bf3bfd423301763cced58d3d3522885562ecf13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x163e…dc5bbacked Over | 55c | 23,564$12,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,719.09 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 9,680$4,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,405.92 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Under | 44c | 3,201$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.44 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 45c | 2,361$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.19 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 47c | 1,732$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.08 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Under | 45c | 1,333$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Under | 45c | 1,267$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.15 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Under | 46c | 1,039$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Under | 46c | 782.61$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 274 | 50%137 W · 137 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0f…780bbacked Under | 45c | 516.51$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.43 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 45c | 258$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Under | 46c | 206.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 195 | 54.9%107 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 47c | 198.48$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.29 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Over | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 46c | 51.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 47c | 42.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 255 | 44.3%113 W · 142 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 45c | 42.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas State Wildcats: O/U 153.5this page
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas State WildcatsIowa State Cyclones won
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas State Wildcats: O/U 154.5Over won
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas State Wildcats: O/U 155.5Over won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-11.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-12.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-13.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.