TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-12.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Iowa State Cyclonesof Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas State Wildcats
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,575
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,714

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,575 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf1f4…544cbacked Kansas State Wildcats53c32,771$17,337 inLost-$17,336.735248.1%25 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Iowa State Cyclones46c15,113$7,027 inWon+$8,085.9712,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Iowa State Cyclones48c10,237$4,866 inWon+$5,370.95,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Iowa State Cyclones48c5,000$2,400 inWon+$2,60061652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Iowa State Cyclones48c1,154$555 inWon+$598.7499848.4%483 W · 515 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Iowa State Cyclones46c528$243 inWon+$285.124,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Iowa State Cyclones48c236.58$114 inWon+$123.0258345.5%265 W · 318 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Iowa State Cyclones47c196.38$92 inWon+$104.0862451.1%319 W · 305 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Iowa State Cyclones47c164$77 inWon+$86.9297447.9%467 W · 507 L-2.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Iowa State Cyclones55c145.45$80 inWon+$65.455745.6%26 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fc5…d36ebacked Kansas State Wildcats50c102$51 inLost-$5110043%43 W · 57 L-9.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-21.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x32d6…844bbacked Iowa State Cyclones49c51$25 inWon+$26.017060%42 W · 28 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Iowa State Cyclones53c50$27 inWon+$23.519851.5%102 W · 96 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Iowa State Cyclones48c25$12 inWon+$1331666.1%209 W · 107 L+24.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.