Asian League · resolved market
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74b5c8896649b2348b82d8d81678c804bcd18000707f374798fe11bcb16bdaa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 61c | 611.54$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.5 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 38c | 482.36$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.16 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 48c | 430.99$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.88 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 64c | 120.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 216 | 52.3%113 W · 103 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 112.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…6f17backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 49c | 49.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b33…1471backed Under | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…6600backed Over | 41c | 38.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 67c | 37.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under | 62c | 32.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 71c | 16.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Shanghai Shenhua FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.