UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74bb1553cf473d0916d6fd3cfe0e9159ba1e57a1e66af843a8ccec8299748dae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 2,345$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.48 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 55c | 1,170$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.5 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed Under | 67c | 257.85$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.54 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…12cabacked Over | 46c | 250.51$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0c…c1f2backed Under | 56c | 235.42$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57a…c543backed Under | 55c | 230.11$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 45c | 188.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed Under | 55c | 154.55$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +51%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcef5…e9acbacked Under | 55c | 98.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…cfffbacked Under | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 54c | 43.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 54c | 43.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 25.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 44c | 24.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +5.9wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC 330: Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (Welterweight, Prelims)Neil Magny won
- Will Neil Magny win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Ramiz Brahimaj win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.