Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74d9d1dc50b0797b58e6c9c08e02d18dac5ce088dc696342e4b7ed3af1128166
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mertensof Gauff, Mertens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Mertens | 63c | 2,227$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.23 | 416 | 45.4%189 W · 227 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Gauff | 36c | 2,108$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.33 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Mertens | 55c | 1,010$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.49 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Gauff | 6c | 752$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Gauff | 41c | 673.56$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.92 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…4183backed Mertens | 58c | 514.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.75 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Gauff | 46c | 480.43$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Gauff | 45c | 429.51$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.98 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Mertens | 59c | 285.52$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.71 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mertens | 54c | 275.69$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Mertens | 59c | 252.45$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.87 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed Gauff | 45c | 242.89$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked Gauff | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Gauff | 45c | 122.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9a…cd64backed Gauff | 44c | 112.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Gauff | 42c | 111$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Gauff | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Gauff | 43c | 79.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…ff8abacked Gauff | 21c | 55.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Gauff | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Mertens | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5)this page
- Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Coco Gauff vs Elise MertensGauff won
- Gauff vs. Mertens: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Gauff vs. Mertens: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Gauff vs MertensMertens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.