Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74ed2e8e337712cd2006ff1b530ec612e16559c54b6f133116f6912dc72bf6a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 42c | 15,000$6,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,300 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 58c | 12,658$7,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,316.36 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 2,246$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.25 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 37c | 2,210$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.6 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 5c | 306.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 40c | 270.13$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 5c | 209.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 37c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 39c | 192.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 58c | 175$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 36c | 157$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 61c | 144.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 64c | 94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7623backed No | 72c | 81.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 62c | 74.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 41c | 73.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 46c | 65.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +17.9wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…fdd1backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ba82backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 59c | 40.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 54c | 30.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked No | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 54c | 23.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-22?this page
- Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-11-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.