Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74f4aba05526e4989e2c05e55abaf44939f205d6f1c10bc60f65b4ce08b35eb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,350$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.23 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 77c | 1,195$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.75 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 22c | 1,100$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 24c | 429.41$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 32c | 375.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.15 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 347$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed No | 75c | 298$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 275.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 250.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 21c | 237.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 64c | 233.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.61 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 65c | 210.76$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 209.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 193.03$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 53c | 160$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 145.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 145.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed No | 77c | 143.37$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 34c | 141.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 140.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 74c | 132.12$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 131.71$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 123.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 111.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 25c | 108.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 22c | 106.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 104$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 102.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 95.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…a7b6backed No | 64c | 93.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 77c | 92.92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 86.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 20c | 85.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 84.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 18c | 83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e5…2dc4backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 79.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 79.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d99…62a8backed No | 79c | 61.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 78c | 59.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 58.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 40c | 57.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…5f3dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 45.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 39c | 45.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 43.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 63c | 43.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 40.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 60c | 40.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 39c | 38.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 36.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 65c | 35.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 59c | 33.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 37c | 32.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 32.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 28.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 43c | 26.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 24.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ee…6c5fbacked Yes | 44c | 22.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 22.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 64c | 20.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 19.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9312…a285backed No | 78c | 18.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…c30abacked No | 72c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 67c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.