Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc65e879d25766628b24974b3ed73c037e1ddc0d97086666cbcfe70e0baed07a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 48c | 1,072$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.51 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 435.04$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 74c | 417.13$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.55 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 360.76$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…eb84backed Yes | 66c | 303.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 268$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.74 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 47c | 239.94$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.51 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 45c | 215.09$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.3 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 43c | 214$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 30c | 197.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 172.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 54c | 171.82$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 165.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 41c | 159.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 37c | 150.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 67c | 147.62$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 72c | 138.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 56c | 133.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 98.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 98.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 98.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 95.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 31c | 94.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 51c | 86.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 86.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 48c | 78.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 19c | 71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 42c | 69.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 59c | 68.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 66.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 60.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 48c | 58.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 50c | 56.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 45c | 56.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 54c | 55.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 65c | 52.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 50.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 74c | 50.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…a4cabacked Yes | 45c | 47.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 40c | 47.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 46c | 47.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 46.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac84…4dbabacked No | 54c | 44.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 43c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 50c | 43.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 53c | 39.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6847…f1eabacked No | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…026dbacked Yes | 46c | 34.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 34.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 58c | 33.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…5115backed Yes | 52c | 32.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 50c | 31.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 50c | 31.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 48c | 26.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d9…d032backed Yes | 50c | 26.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 47c | 25.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 54c | 25.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 59c | 22.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d7…9f0cbacked No | 54c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 74c | 20.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 20.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 62c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…4421backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.