AI · resolved market
Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $250M?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75176f4c2e417cb0ebf7f00026c7df1b3e96fb06fa722f099bc02852b6410e7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 13c | 3,279$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.08 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0a…be95backed No | 27c | 414$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908c…860ebacked No | 27c | 214$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 27c | 175.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 11c | 105.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 13c | 101.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07ca…e577backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb9…0754backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…61e3backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +463.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7976…f3dcbacked No | 22c | 86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…6606backed No | 16c | 77.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 26c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ef…4535backed No | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked No | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $250M?this page
- Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $225M?Yes won
- Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $275M?No won
- Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $300M?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.