AI · resolved market
Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $275M?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7f0ff7127b91c2134db6854300d9c69498d598ceb166b5db2f2f8e9ec0c1d0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 17c | 1,799$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.81 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 800$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed Yes | 24c | 547.58$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 31c | 246.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 25c | 175$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…e505backed No | 70c | 164.39$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cea…3880backed No | 69c | 130.23$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…48a5backed No | 58c | 101.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 85.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 19c | 84.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed Yes | 29c | 77.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 54.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 26c | 46.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 30c | 39.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…0fe1backed Yes | 36c | 33.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x971f…fbc8backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…2d19backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 76c | 19.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $275M?this page
- Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $225M?Yes won
- Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $250M?Yes won
- Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $300M?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.