CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x757c8790d52290340ad72cdf004705c126aa600df9a7cdf5cc1561000c104037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TNCof Ursa, TNC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked TNC | 68c | 5,322$3,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.31 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed Ursa | 31c | 1,048$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.05 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa369…3ad6backed Ursa | 28c | 993.53$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.4 | 331 | 46.5%154 W · 177 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…a778backed TNC | 66c | 888.31$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.6 | 301 | 55.8%168 W · 133 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Ursa | 26c | 809.66$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.51 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed Ursa | 32c | 754$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.01 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…56e3backed TNC | 69c | 581.69$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.44 | 247 | 46.2%114 W · 133 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…bf89backed Ursa | 32c | 506.25$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0083…80fdbacked Ursa | 27c | 354$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Ursa | 32c | 331.25$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 324 | 43.5%141 W · 183 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b21…4b63backed Ursa | 57c | 300$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 119 | 47.9%57 W · 62 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Ursa | 58c | 290.95$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Ursa | 32c | 270$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.93 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed Ursa | 31c | 241.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 325 | 44.3%144 W · 181 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Ursa | 50c | 188$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 293 | 40.6%119 W · 174 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked Ursa | 34c | 158.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 260 | 48.8%127 W · 133 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Ursa | 16c | 153.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed TNC | 77c | 133.7$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 274 | 59.5%163 W · 111 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b05…acd6backed Ursa | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Ursa | 30c | 113$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ursa | 31c | 109.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…6d99backed Ursa | 31c | 99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Ursa | 52c | 96.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 28c | 93.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ursa | 34c | 87.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Ursa | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…c512backed TNC | 67c | 49.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1716…72aabacked Ursa | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…c840backed Ursa | 51c | 39.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group StageTNC won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC - Map 2 WinnerTNC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.