CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2fb92748b4e167146759d26edba3ca7c7bf12a5485476f009896c7e450388fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TNCof Ursa, TNC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Ursa | 74c | 5,216$3,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,845.53 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Ursa | 71c | 2,099$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.45 | 1,011 | 52.3%529 W · 482 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed TNC | 27c | 2,092$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.3 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824f…69bdbacked Ursa | 54c | 1,310$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.41 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…80c3backed TNC | 46c | 1,088$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.67 | 333 | 59.8%199 W · 134 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked TNC | 33c | 960$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.2 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa369…3ad6backed TNC | 27c | 874.61$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.41 | 331 | 46.5%154 W · 177 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Ursa | 50c | 657.88$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.33 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b5…c0aebacked TNC | 25c | 630$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.5 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…a778backed Ursa | 70c | 591.15$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.86 | 301 | 55.8%168 W · 133 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…bf89backed TNC | 24c | 560.67$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.34 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed1…eedbbacked TNC | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed TNC | 51c | 472.65$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.46 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed TNC | 32c | 453.15$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.59 | 1,278 | 21.9%280 W · 998 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…102abacked Ursa | 67c | 450$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.5 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b5…c5a8backed TNC | 24c | 448.92$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed TNC | 29c | 383$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.74 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed TNC | 41c | 381$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.84 | 293 | 40.6%119 W · 174 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed TNC | 35c | 376.28$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.28 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed Ursa | 63c | 369.42$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.7 | 640 | 58.1%372 W · 268 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10c6…3314backed TNC | 39c | 355$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed TNC | 50c | 338.51$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.3 | 248 | 40.7%101 W · 147 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed Ursa | 66c | 302.38$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.15 | 454 | 65.9%299 W · 155 L | +20.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66da…69b0backed Ursa | 70c | 294$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.78 | 280 | 42.5%119 W · 161 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfe…5c6cbacked Ursa | 73c | 270$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed TNC | 41c | 260$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.97 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed TNC | 24c | 251$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.76 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…cd56backed TNC | 32c | 249.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ursa | 45c | 229$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.1 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed TNC | 30c | 216.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.21 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed TNC | 25c | 208.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.32 | 325 | 44.3%144 W · 181 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…198bbacked TNC | 22c | 205$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed TNC | 31c | 193.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.55 | 442 | 44.1%195 W · 247 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked TNC | 43c | 186.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.58 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc056…e188backed TNC | 54c | 185.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.93 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0083…80fdbacked TNC | 50c | 157$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked TNC | 36c | 146.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.4 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…dca3backed Ursa | 63c | 123.9$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 302 | 54.3%164 W · 138 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed TNC | 26c | 122.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed TNC | 42c | 122$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…5d9fbacked TNC | 31c | 116.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…56e3backed Ursa | 65c | 110.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 247 | 46.2%114 W · 133 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…867abacked Ursa | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked TNC | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 260 | 48.8%127 W · 133 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…cd7ebacked Ursa | 69c | 73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ursa | 47c | 70.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Ursa | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 424 | 27.1%115 W · 309 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed TNC | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb441…f757backed TNC | 60c | 49.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Ursa | 63c | 42.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2254…bfe0backed Ursa | 59c | 40.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…f4e3backed Ursa | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed TNC | 28c | 39.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 762 | 48.4%369 W · 393 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3c…a471backed Ursa | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Ursa | 48c | 24.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group StageTNC won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC - Map 1 WinnerTNC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.