Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7598c0fb18296d5c3ade6799434392da356e4baed5fc1fb889c66f7e2f9c869f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Team Yandex, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,514 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Team Yandex | 57c | 9,117$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12a…f637backed Heroic | 43c | 6,771$2,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,859.63 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Heroic | 44c | 4,186$1,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,362.85 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Yandex | 66c | 2,901$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.78 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Team Yandex | 34c | 1,914$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.81 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heroic | 40c | 1,671$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.73 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Heroic | 63c | 1,611$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.29 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Yandex | 45c | 1,571$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.8 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Team Yandex | 68c | 1,480$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…3f70backed Team Yandex | 53c | 1,352$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.28 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Heroic | 44c | 901.83$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.63 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Heroic | 39c | 774.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.09 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Heroic | 46c | 582.09$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.44 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Heroic | 41c | 580.2$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.12 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…d1a4backed Heroic | 44c | 567.25$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.25 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex | 49c | 565.58$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.96 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Team Yandex | 40c | 520$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.85 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Yandex | 57c | 496.89$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.04 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Heroic | 61c | 435$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.08 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Heroic | 43c | 387.52$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.3 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Team Yandex | 58c | 300$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Team Yandex | 62c | 295$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.9 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Heroic | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.42 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed Heroic | 40c | 239.38$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.63 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Team Yandex | 62c | 226.47$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.54 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Yandex | 53c | 212.55$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Heroic | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Team Yandex | 61c | 181$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.14 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Team Yandex | 15c | 171.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Team Yandex | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Heroic | 66c | 139.83$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Heroic | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Team Yandex | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Yandex | 32c | 92.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Heroic | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3938…c6cbbacked Team Yandex | 60c | 72.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Heroic | 53c | 65.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Yandex | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…8521backed Heroic | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Heroic | 40c | 47.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c57…bf46backed Heroic | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Heroic | 51c | 38.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Team Yandex | 44c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 311 | 43.4%135 W · 176 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Yandex | 58c | 34.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Team Yandex | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf119…dde9backed Heroic | 59c | 26.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Heroic | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 214 | 65%139 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Heroic | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Team Yandex | 58c | 21.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…1208backed Heroic | 56c | 17.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageHeroic won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.