Asian League · resolved market
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-03-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75b4449c4210f8304990b37c8a2421d37fa6d1f451d1562e7cdcdcdb277c087e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,834 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 46c | 2,903$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,572.01 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 55c | 2,691$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.71 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 65c | 1,038$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.68 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 50c | 647.22$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.4 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 66c | 576.81$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.6 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 63c | 396.82$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.02 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 74c | 341.06$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.7 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 43c | 221.03$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 199$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 41c | 148.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 51c | 134.35$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 64c | 109$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 50c | 89.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 27c | 69.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 44c | 53.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 53c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 279 | 64.9%181 W · 98 L | +28.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec91…c229backed Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Yes | 52c | 42.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Yes | 33c | 42.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 40c | 42.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…4596backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 55c | 41.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 57c | 41.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…178dbacked No | 46c | 31.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0914…e49fbacked No | 47c | 31.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 43c | 31.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 46c | 28.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 50c | 21.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…4745backed Yes | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-03-18?this page
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-03-18?No won
- Will Vissel Kōbe vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.