Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75e6aafd12e4ccd399bf52144eec2bf3462a8bc771395685c2cad4174271300f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 5c | 999.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…6879backed No | 1c | 888.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked No | 35c | 861.7$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.31 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed No | 2c | 800$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 5c | 722.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.28 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 3c | 705.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ef…b7fcbacked No | 3c | 635.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 536.95$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 14c | 402.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.53 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 4c | 368.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.01 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 80c | 361.96$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 15c | 332.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 5c | 315.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.64 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 6c | 279.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.65 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 15c | 279.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.49 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 42c | 249.65$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 246.78$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 23c | 203.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 15c | 187.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.53 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed No | 9c | 165.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 12c | 163.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.28 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 159.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.51 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5198…4964backed Yes | 32c | 156.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…3d62backed Yes | 9c | 148.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.97 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 8c | 139.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.37 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…8f51backed Yes | 11c | 139.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.86 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 9c | 134.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.68 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 8c | 132.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.39 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…506bbacked Yes | 10c | 120.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.66 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b2…5784backed Yes | 15c | 111.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 13c | 103.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 22c | 86.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 15c | 78.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 58c | 64.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6449…a054backed Yes | 39c | 51.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…3beebacked Yes | 69c | 50.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked Yes | 32c | 31.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 24.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 68c | 23.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 71c | 22.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…0ccdbacked Yes | 57c | 19.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.