Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecb9602331f6d333ab9ea536fae52c5ae291ce142c781270ab9419e264dfdb79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cb6…0f8fbacked No | 77c | 1,234$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 536.2$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…0389backed Yes | 43c | 469.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 14c | 307.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 21c | 299.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 252.34$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.36 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 58c | 248$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 35c | 209.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.77 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 16c | 201.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed No | 60c | 189.38$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 170$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 70c | 133.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745b…0b9abacked Yes | 35c | 131$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 20c | 122.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…0ef8backed Yes | 44c | 113.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…19abbacked Yes | 33c | 113.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 30c | 110.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 103.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 97.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 83.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 40c | 76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed No | 65c | 74.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 39c | 72.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 41c | 72.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 65.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 39c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 65c | 53.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 54c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c7…9acfbacked Yes | 38c | 50.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 47.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…894bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 45c | 44.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 77c | 36.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 54c | 35.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 61c | 32.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 58c | 30.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6449…a054backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 29.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 29.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 59c | 26.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 60c | 26.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 60c | 23.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 66c | 20.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 71c | 18.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 79c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.