Tennis · resolved market
Anastasia Potapova vs. Elena Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7603e5ef1e0a4b1cd717e774a6fb8bc498e8e0ba78c9804edb07661ee42fd81e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over 2.5 | 80c | 3,716$2,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,972.75 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Under 2.5 | 20c | 1,410$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.11 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Under 2.5 | 20c | 887.74$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.19 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 48c | 588.06$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.52 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under 2.5 | 20c | 416.74$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.39 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…374abacked Over 2.5 | 31c | 310.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…c3eebacked Under 2.5 | 20c | 186.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.38 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Under 2.5 | 35c | 178.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 197 | 40.6%80 W · 117 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…9b4bbacked Under 2.5 | 20c | 125.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.53 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Over 2.5 | 65c | 96.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Under 2.5 | 20c | 95.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0806…4adabacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 88.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under 2.5 | 13c | 86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Under 2.5 | 72c | 66.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 222 | 52.3%116 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8754backed Under 2.5 | 25c | 52.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…698bbacked Under 2.5 | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 84 | 73.8%62 W · 22 L | +24.4wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 48.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over 2.5 | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Under 2.5 | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -25%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Under 2.5 | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +13.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed Over 2.5 | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under 2.5 | 72c | 15.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…b4aebacked Over 2.5 | 72c | 14.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Anastasia Potapova vs. Elena Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena RybakinaAnastasia Potapova won
- Potapova vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Potapova vs. Rybakina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Potapova vs RybakinaPotapova won
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Potapova (+1.5)Potapova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.