Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Potapova vs Rybakina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf951fd793a98093875ee995e4c95abe74591ccacbe9d982cbaa7aafc1f8b81f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Potapovaof Potapova, Rybakina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Potapova | 44c | 755.24$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.69 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…e9b4backed Rybakina | 77c | 730.05$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.14 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Rybakina | 38c | 499.94$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.06 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -13.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Rybakina | 78c | 320.8$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.41 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272b…0a6ebacked Potapova | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Rybakina | 79c | 292.52$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.79 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Potapova | 23c | 286.14$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.33 | 357 | 30.5%109 W · 248 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rybakina | 55c | 273.28$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.91 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…d51ebacked Potapova | 41c | 213.11$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rybakina | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…c3eebacked Potapova | 23c | 194.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.08 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…e1f5backed Rybakina | 60c | 192.96$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 214 | 51.4%110 W · 104 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Rybakina | 14c | 180.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +131.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…bafebacked Potapova | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x688a…9450backed Rybakina | 64c | 150.48$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Potapova | 50c | 115.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rybakina | 60c | 114.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Potapova | 31c | 114.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Rybakina | 63c | 100.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Potapova | 22c | 88.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Rybakina | 34c | 83.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed Potapova | 48c | 73.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…e98cbacked Rybakina | 53c | 69.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 164 | 59.1%97 W · 67 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Rybakina | 41c | 64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 181 | 32.6%59 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…13edbacked Potapova | 22c | 51.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6525…c12cbacked Rybakina | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Rybakina | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Potapova | 23c | 47.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Rybakina | 41c | 46.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Rybakina | 65c | 34.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Rybakina | 38c | 27.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…b4aebacked Rybakina | 62c | 26.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Rybakina | 69c | 25.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 181 | 58.6%106 W · 75 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…e7c3backed Potapova | 62c | 19.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Potapova vs Rybakinathis page
- Anastasia Potapova vs. Elena Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena RybakinaAnastasia Potapova won
- Potapova vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Potapova vs. Rybakina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Potapova (+1.5)Potapova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.