Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Casper Ruud
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7606eb3a4bda7243a9fc18039091942a7e59a6cc0720417cfe922d5d8c335c03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruudof Shapovalov, Ruud
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Ruud | 62c | 8,000$4,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,040 | 672 | 49.6%333 W · 339 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Shapovalov | 38c | 6,384$2,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,425.92 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…d32abacked Ruud | 68c | 2,939$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.85 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Shapovalov | 39c | 2,208$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.25 | 365 | 40.8%149 W · 216 L | -13.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Shapovalov | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Shapovalov | 34c | 915.28$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.97 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Shapovalov | 2c | 858$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Ruud | 65c | 699$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.65 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ruud | 77c | 492.32$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.22 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Shapovalov | 35c | 466.87$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.42 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Shapovalov | 39c | 449.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Shapovalov | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Shapovalov | 38c | 416$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.08 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Shapovalov | 37c | 290.66$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…a25bbacked Ruud | 63c | 235.94$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Ruud | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Ruud | 65c | 153.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Ruud | 64c | 150.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 650 | 40%260 W · 390 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Ruud | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Shapovalov | 18c | 147.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Shapovalov | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Ruud | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c66…79c7backed Ruud | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Shapovalov | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Shapovalov | 39c | 81.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Shapovalov | 39c | 77.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Ruud | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Shapovalov | 33c | 74.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…82f1backed Ruud | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Ruud | 61c | 50.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Ruud | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7641…e092backed Ruud | 59c | 42.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Ruud | 62c | 38.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c88…8570backed Ruud | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ae…0ce3backed Ruud | 68c | 15.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.