NFL · resolved market
Spread: Steelers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x762e76e300b369e45c0ab401ecd0427e2591f706a764502305b643584e9c3855
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jetsof Steelers, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Steelers | 45c | 9,149$4,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,077.18 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Jets | 55c | 7,750$4,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,487.49 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Jets | 56c | 5,554$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,434.28 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Steelers | 44c | 2,229$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.7 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Jets | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Steelers | 43c | 1,341$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.24 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…4602backed Steelers | 45c | 1,331$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Steelers | 45c | 1,004$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.57 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Steelers | 43c | 930.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Jets | 57c | 650$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.5 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Steelers | 44c | 622.73$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Jets | 54c | 434.78$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…afd7backed Steelers | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Jets | 56c | 346.02$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.64 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Steelers | 43c | 340.69$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.02 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Jets | 59c | 315$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.45 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Jets | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…a70abacked Jets | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked Steelers | 45c | 139.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Steelers | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Steelers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Jets | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…e827backed Steelers | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…b14cbacked Jets | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…bb3dbacked Jets | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Jets | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Steelers (-3.5)this page
- Steelers vs. JetsSteelers won
- Steelers vs. Jets: O/U 38.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.