NFL · resolved market
Steelers vs. Jets: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e338c4b8375f0397987fc640837e94e53d0ba65d516b760bc90a1f02e54777b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Over | 50c | 25,000$12,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,500 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc46f…2003backed Under | 50c | 16,046$8,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,023.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Under | 50c | 5,507$2,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,756.47 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 1,245$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.32 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 53c | 655$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.15 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Under | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 121 | 33.9%41 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Under | 52c | 554.54$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.36 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 48c | 209.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 190.61$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd254…80a2backed Under | 52c | 56.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Over | 47c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 47c | 47.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…5fc0backed Under | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…bb3dbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Under | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Steelers vs. Jets: O/U 38.5this page
- Spread: Steelers (-3.5)Jets won
- Steelers vs. JetsSteelers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.