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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 27?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,971
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,207

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,971 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7300…e52cbacked No5c4,242$230 inLost-$230.12,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7439…b8efbacked Yes27c453.19$121 inWon+$332.6913438.8%52 W · 82 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No14c330.48$47 inLost-$46.971,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No43c308.06$134 inLost-$133.7763122.5%142 W · 489 L-29.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dba…3de8backed Yes76c190.31$144 inWon+$45.831855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No10c140.39$14 inLost-$14.3150661.3%310 W · 196 L+42.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No73c113$82 inLost-$82.322,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x398c…c935backed Yes25c107.04$27 inWon+$80.0523634.7%82 W · 154 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes24c104$25 inWon+$79.182,75729.7%819 W · 1,938 L-1.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes24c101.74$25 inWon+$77.210,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb66…9085backed Yes25c86$22 inWon+$64.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c85.73$63 inLost-$63.446,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No31c79.39$25 inLost-$24.897,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd33e…8736backed No45c71.51$32 inLost-$32.326553.8%35 W · 30 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+66%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No29c65.15$19 inLost-$18.8212,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc85b…ba1bbacked No75c65$49 inLost-$48.6922771.8%163 W · 64 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaf3…2286backed Yes25c53$13 inWon+$39.753740.5%15 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes36c50$18 inWon+$32.0716325.8%42 W · 121 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…a526backed Yes72c44.94$32 inWon+$12.6716868.5%115 W · 53 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes48c38.26$18 inWon+$2015066%99 W · 51 L+18.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+28.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x78e5…c577backed Yes32c35$11 inWon+$23.653540%14 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0018…83a4backed No59c33.83$20 inLost-$207630.3%23 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c32$22 inLost-$22.45,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No73c30.8$22 inLost-$22.471,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No74c30.46$22 inLost-$22.4610,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No75c30.33$23 inLost-$22.842,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6199…ece4backed No72c27$19 inLost-$19.446672.7%48 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No72c25.89$19 inLost-$18.765,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d1f…8c58backed No76c25$19 inLost-$1918939.7%75 W · 114 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes67c24.66$17 inWon+$8.1115246.1%70 W · 82 L-19.9wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-21.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes77c22.45$17 inWon+$5.2412,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes49c22.31$11 inWon+$11.322,28358.3%1,331 W · 952 L+85.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked No76c20$15 inLost-$15.217058.8%100 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked No77c19.23$15 inLost-$14.8146736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c15.01$11 inLost-$10.969,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No76c13.8$11 inLost-$10.5341274.8%308 W · 104 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.