South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7687d8a38287ef2d8c607cc8f4eb2784c7538a4fbcc9c3f043077192aaa0394e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cruzeiro ECof CA Boca Juniors, Cruzeiro EC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed CA Boca Juniors | 29c | 830.65$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.96 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Cruzeiro EC | 71c | 686.65$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.2 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed CA Boca Juniors | 46c | 390.43$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.02 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4c…1940backed Cruzeiro EC | 79c | 373.64$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked CA Boca Juniors | 21c | 258.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Cruzeiro EC | 54c | 230.76$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.15 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cruzeiro EC | 73c | 182.85$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cruzeiro EC | 61c | 113.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cruzeiro EC | 78c | 63.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Cruzeiro EC | 77c | 34.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Cruzeiro EC | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5)this page
- CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)CA Boca Juniors won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)CA Boca Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.