MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76895e12dafff1da7fad6362020de49a2221a405cd91a719195ac0ea8759c7cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 44c | 20,065$8,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,850 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 57c | 5,597$3,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,398.61 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 56c | 4,649$2,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045.29 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 55c | 3,430$1,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.37 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 56c | 3,005$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.1 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 56c | 1,966$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.06 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Under | 55c | 1,700$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 56c | 1,466$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.08 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Over | 42c | 832.56$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Under | 56c | 700$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Under | 55c | 600$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bd…2182backed Under | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Under | 56c | 330.26$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.16 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Over | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eeb…0f05backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 61c | 74.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Under | 63c | 60.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba7…17b2backed Over | 43c | 43.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d4…47d8backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 43c | 30.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Giants vs. DodgersDodgers won
- NRFI: San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.