Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7690183ac6fdea5a20ca95b2af45eff2e60836b412fd4cf1b5d462a71fe9b95f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 807.95$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.15 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 385.78$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 48c | 246.43$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 34c | 183.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 152.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 148.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 144.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 136.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 68c | 131.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 120.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 56c | 107.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2f…c23ebacked Yes | 40c | 104$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 66c | 101.53$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 63c | 100.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0550…c7efbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 58c | 87.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…12c5backed Yes | 21c | 86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…76e9backed No | 63c | 74.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 68c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 67.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 60c | 66.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 65.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked No | 61c | 62.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 62.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 65c | 56.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 56.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed Yes | 36c | 54.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 54.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 64c | 52.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 40c | 51.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 65c | 50.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 59c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 60c | 49.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 48.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 69c | 43.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 39.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 39.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 70c | 38.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 35c | 37.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 31c | 34.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 31c | 32.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 57c | 31.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 28.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 79c | 26.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 70c | 23.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 66c | 22.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…7d6fbacked Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 21.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 70c | 21.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 63c | 19.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…f1f6backed No | 76c | 19.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 18.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 64c | 18.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 62c | 18.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed No | 59c | 17.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed No | 64c | 15.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 76c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…d92cbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 67°F or below on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.