Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76b072300ea3cdc7a0c97f5c6db79e2176b27e95d068d9c8db2abba087e9df93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 1c | 3,100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 37c | 2,954$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.51 | 304 | 38.8%118 W · 186 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Up | 70c | 2,817$1,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.6 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Up | 75c | 1,767$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.07 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefd6…7981backed Down | 32c | 1,546$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Down | 25c | 1,062$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.13 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 42c | 1,003$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.19 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 4c | 694.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up | 79c | 511.83$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.22 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Down | 35c | 461.75$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.28 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked Down | 3c | 399.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Up | 76c | 285.55$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Down | 21c | 130.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 48c | 118.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…2e7cbacked Up | 52c | 96.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 81 | 65.4%53 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Up | 61c | 72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Up | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 53c | 56.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…162cbacked Down | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 37c | 49.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 57c | 43.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Up | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Up | 46c | 37.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…50e4backed Down | 59c | 34.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Up | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…6176backed Up | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e17…fc4cbacked Up | 79c | 18.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.