MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76cd68eb356963df672dd0d5d69aa9bac20b705822f022f65f131c6d553757a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,173 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Minnesota Twins | 54c | 1,862$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.43 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 1,219$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.26 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 999.8$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.72 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79aa…f5b9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 813$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 759$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.55 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 625.5$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.79 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9573…4b98backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 470$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…15fdbacked Minnesota Twins | 53c | 411$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc827…c8b1backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 402$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 324$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.76 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 285.6$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.22 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…1c02backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 270$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Minnesota Twins | 53c | 243$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.67 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 202.28$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865e…f2d4backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 195.7$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.68 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Minnesota Twins | 53c | 106$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Minnesota Twins | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 92.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 80.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 72.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 58.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc634…a191backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd2…c472backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 43.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Minnesota Twins | 38c | 40.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 35.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 32.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 32.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 31.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…176bbacked Minnesota Twins | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 24.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Minnesota Twins | 44c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 23.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 22.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafdb…c380backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4296…9937backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.