CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Morningstar vs Rare Atom (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Asian Open Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76db99866ad173b7d4e46499bc13f746a89eb661408cb55b0822181126a426dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rare Atomof Morningstar, Rare Atom
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Morningstar | 24c | 700.51$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 5,810 | 37.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L | +78.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Morningstar | 4c | 569.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 3,415 | 29.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L | -275.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Rare Atom | 76c | 420$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1,154 | 48.3%557 W · 597 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Morningstar | 19c | 265.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 136 | 42.6%58 W · 78 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0190…279fbacked Morningstar | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Morningstar | 19c | 166$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 3,165 | 45.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L | -74.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Morningstar | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 232 | 26.3%61 W · 171 L | -15.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Morningstar | 19c | 71.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,119 | 42.9%909 W · 1,210 L | -66.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Morningstar | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1a…ec2ebacked Morningstar | 30c | 66.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Morningstar | 19c | 61.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,491 | 41.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L | -114.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Morningstar | 20c | 50.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 509 | 52.1%265 W · 244 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Rare Atom | 80c | 50.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa8…093dbacked Rare Atom | 75c | 33.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Rare Atom | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1,034 | 54.9%568 W · 466 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed Rare Atom | 76c | 25.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 548 | 50%274 W · 274 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…5b83backed Rare Atom | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Rare Atom | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 482 | 42.1%203 W · 279 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb47…4737backed Rare Atom | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 113 | 75.2%85 W · 28 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x395a…eb72backed Rare Atom | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Morningstar vs Rare Atom (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Asian Open Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Morningstar vs Rare Atom - Map 1 WinnerRare Atom won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.