Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76f9869bde79ff3143d59a6b64c8fa3c480bde8f91ff5081459b321f6acba285
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 36c | 526.49$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.34 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 317$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.8 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 40c | 273.58$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.43 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 59c | 241.6$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.17 | 908 | 29.2%265 W · 643 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 18c | 147.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 218 | 58.3%127 W · 91 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 133.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 122.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 39c | 112.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 17c | 107.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 464 | 56.5%262 W · 202 L | +54.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 107.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 88.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 82.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 39c | 75.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 74.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 28c | 71.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 59c | 68.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 33c | 66.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 63.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 61.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 78c | 57.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 526 | 50.2%264 W · 262 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 63c | 53.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 49.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 47.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 44.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 60c | 32.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 27.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 64c | 23.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 62c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 63c | 22.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 17.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.