TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Xtreme Gamingof PARIVISION, Xtreme Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,947
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,791

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,947 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf679…16acbacked PARIVISION25c500$125 inLost-$12522954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Xtreme Gaming75c500$375 inWon+$12525549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed PARIVISION40c200$80 inLost-$8036051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b30…5bf9backed Xtreme Gaming65c120$78 inWon+$426666.7%44 W · 22 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb3e…9120backed PARIVISION35c104.29$36 inLost-$36.56634.8%23 W · 43 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed PARIVISION34c100$34 inLost-$3497142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Xtreme Gaming66c91.67$61 inWon+$31.1474549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f3a…7dcbbacked PARIVISION42c32.31$14 inLost-$13.5720952.6%110 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Xtreme Gaming58c32.31$19 inWon+$13.5719742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.