TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Xtreme Gamingof PARIVISION, Xtreme Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$199,468
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$240,096

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,468 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3833…33d1backed PARIVISION55c20,000$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,999.9642650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed Xtreme Gaming45c19,538$8,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,745.892133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-38.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Xtreme Gaming52c15,734$8,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,630.6155157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Xtreme Gaming45c14,750$6,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,128.4813558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed PARIVISION55c12,222$6,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,722.132854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed PARIVISION54c7,992$4,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,350.6210445.2%47 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed PARIVISION14c6,700$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.9965625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION51c5,976$3,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,065.6296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION35c5,957$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,110.812,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ed…4ae2backed PARIVISION61c5,899$3,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,624.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-53.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f47…d0a3backed PARIVISION1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked PARIVISION59c4,250$2,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,507.517546.9%82 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Xtreme Gaming55c4,055$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.810741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed PARIVISION56c3,698$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,082.3954556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Xtreme Gaming47c3,588$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,897.515642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked Xtreme Gaming67c2,882$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.268543.5%37 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Xtreme Gaming39c2,549$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,542.259345.2%42 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Xtreme Gaming53c2,200$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.8519148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Xtreme Gaming47c2,190$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.6920159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed PARIVISION42c2,128$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.1214253.5%76 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b3…be68backed PARIVISION50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003250%16 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PARIVISION46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Xtreme Gaming61c1,920$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.994949%24 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53a5…fc83backed Xtreme Gaming42c1,749$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.225446.3%25 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Xtreme Gaming45c1,527$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.0326550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd679…9ccfbacked Xtreme Gaming52c1,470$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.614058.6%82 W · 58 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Xtreme Gaming64c1,425$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.3521264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa39f…c1fdbacked PARIVISION60c1,351$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Xtreme Gaming42c1,300$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.9958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e3a…780cbacked PARIVISION55c1,230$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.265839.7%23 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed PARIVISION17c1,200$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.7840014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked PARIVISION61c1,184$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.5253844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION34c1,174$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.552,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Xtreme Gaming39c1,162$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.6928748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed PARIVISION47c1,150$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.5159250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Xtreme Gaming53c1,149$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.931,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked PARIVISION28c1,054$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2955829.3%17 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a7e…ce6cbacked PARIVISION1c1,044$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Xtreme Gaming42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58033850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed PARIVISION55c975.4$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.894443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed PARIVISION52c975.17$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.9813455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Xtreme Gaming45c955$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.2560349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Xtreme Gaming50c923.28$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.288060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed PARIVISION55c910.58$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.4957455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed PARIVISION54c900$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4821250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Xtreme Gaming43c897.35$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.9585851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed Xtreme Gaming45c831$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.0515653.8%84 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked PARIVISION56c800$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44822954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed PARIVISION42c800$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33645061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked PARIVISION59c750$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.53336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed PARIVISION57c701.75$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4009053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Xtreme Gaming47c660$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34855251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed PARIVISION59c600$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3544768.1%32 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd01a…bf29backed Xtreme Gaming70c560$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.25962.7%37 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Xtreme Gaming44c550.55$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.1988166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Xtreme Gaming56c547.51$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.7456848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e6…9d29backed PARIVISION39c509.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+169.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed PARIVISION38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19033265.4%217 W · 115 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x77c6…85b9backed PARIVISION60c499.75$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.726546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed PARIVISION38c497$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.8231245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Xtreme Gaming47c476.62$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.671,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked Xtreme Gaming53c453$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.3820452.9%108 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb0…8ababacked Xtreme Gaming45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.443638.9%14 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Xtreme Gaming45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.4464149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb37a…1aa1backed PARIVISION35c426.39$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Xtreme Gaming72c416.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6725457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed PARIVISION34c399.99$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13611647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaa4…71c5backed PARIVISION39c397.88$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.176245.2%28 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed Xtreme Gaming71c388.71$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.1936051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed PARIVISION55c359.99$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19880742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked PARIVISION55c355.23$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3829548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed PARIVISION57c350.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe180…889bbacked Xtreme Gaming72c331.85$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8512456.5%70 W · 54 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Xtreme Gaming38c320$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5316821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee4b…44edbacked PARIVISION47c319.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd15e…db59backed PARIVISION48c311.36$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011845.8%54 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x672d…dbd7backed PARIVISION21c310.7$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6540047.5%190 W · 210 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked Xtreme Gaming49c306$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1568854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Xtreme Gaming43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1716647%31 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed PARIVISION27c300$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8061548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Xtreme Gaming56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13253757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb569…6fe0backed Xtreme Gaming40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18027548%132 W · 143 L-1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Xtreme Gaming74c299.99$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7873743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed PARIVISION21c292.82$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7920350.7%103 W · 100 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed PARIVISION54c290.87$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.0716160.2%97 W · 64 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c0…d689backed PARIVISION40c270.09$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1071428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8737…72babacked Xtreme Gaming43c266.88$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.125550.9%28 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Xtreme Gaming41c259.3$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.81,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3260…85ddbacked PARIVISION40c233.31$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.96454.7%35 W · 29 L+7.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Xtreme Gaming61c231.19$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.015648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Xtreme Gaming44c230.33$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.8887645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb22d…3a13backed Xtreme Gaming45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2224045.4%109 W · 131 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Xtreme Gaming45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.221,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed PARIVISION55c219.77$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1209254.3%50 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed PARIVISION47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007546.7%35 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c74…c217backed Xtreme Gaming38c210$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.21478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.31per pick47cpaid+67.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xd77f…05a4backed PARIVISION62c210$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.21118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.9wins-0.35per pick54cpaid-64.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x55e5…df30backed PARIVISION48c209.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Xtreme Gaming46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10812061.7%74 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec61…4a2ebacked PARIVISION33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610941.3%45 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.