TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Orlando City SCof New York Red Bulls, Orlando City SC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,382
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,333

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,382 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e39…352cbacked New York Red Bulls10c1,000$100 inLost-$1002630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed New York Red Bulls11c289.38$30 inLost-$30.411,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed New York Red Bulls12c287.06$35 inLost-$35.2310338.8%40 W · 63 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed New York Red Bulls10c200$20 inLost-$2010612.3%13 W · 93 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c34…266dbacked New York Red Bulls10c100$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Red Bulls21c92.73$20 inLost-$19.53,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x153a…af29backed New York Red Bulls16c85$14 inLost-$13.62860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c35…e5f8backed Orlando City SC69c42.39$29 inWon+$13.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.